These are events that would be on the path to the downfall of the regime.

Resolution Criteria

Each answer resolves YES if the specific event occurs and is verified through credible reporting. Resolution sources include major news outlets, official government statements, and documented evidence.

• Opposition broadcasts hacking Iran TV 3+ times: Iran's state broadcaster IRIB satellite feed has been hacked multiple times, with broadcasts disrupted to air opposition messages. Requires 3+ separate documented hacking incidents targeting Iranian state television channels.

• High-profile military defections (2+ named officers on video via Starlink): Requires video evidence of 2 or more named Iranian military officers publicly calling for units to stand down or defect, distributed via Starlink or other verified means.

• Brigade or base commander switches sides: Requires credible reporting of a named commander of a military brigade or base publicly defecting or switching allegiance to opposition forces.

• US/Israeli announce Iran navy annihilated (surface ships >10 tons, excluding small subs): Trump stated the U.S. had destroyed and sunk nine of Iran's naval ships and largely destroyed the nation's naval headquarters. Requires official announcement that all Iranian surface naval vessels exceeding 10 tons have been destroyed or sunk.

• Interim council fractures or member defects publicly: The interim leadership council includes Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, the head of the judiciary and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi. Resolves YES if the council publicly fractures, disbands, or if any member publicly defects or calls for regime change.

Background

Israel and the United States launched a coordinated joint attack on February 28, 2026, targeting key officials and military commanders, resulting in the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the formation of an Interim Leadership Council. Iran's state broadcaster IRIB satellite feed was hacked, with speeches by US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressing the Iranian people aired during the disruption. The hack targeted channels delivered via the Badr satellite, with exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi speaking directly to security forces, urging soldiers to put down their weapons and side with citizens.

Considerations

Iran is systematically crippling Starlink, with military-grade GPS jammers deployed since January 8 cutting satellite internet performance by as much as 80% in parts of the country. This significantly constrains the ability to broadcast defection videos via Starlink. The appointment of a new successor has been described as necessarily "improvisational" and experts warn that "a smooth process is nearly impossible," with expectations that the temporary council will remain permanent.

This description was generated by AI.

• Update 2026-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Interim Council Fractures resolution clarification:

The original interim council members being tracked are:

• Masoud Pezeshkian (President)

• Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i (Chief Justice)

• Ayatollah Alireza Arafi (Guardian Council cleric/jurist)

Although the interim council officially dissolved when the Assembly of Experts installed Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, the question continues to track the original three members for death, defection, or public renouncement.

If Mojtaba Khamenei is killed and a new council is appointed, any new council members will also be tracked alongside the original three.

• Update 2026-03-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Interim Council Fractures resolution for end-of-war scenario:

  • If the war ends with all original three council members (Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Eje'i, Arafi) alive and none having defected, this resolves NO

  • Resolves YES if any member is dead, defected, or if the regime has substantially changed such that interim councils no longer exist