Will something happen in Iran this month?
2
Ṁ1kṀ172Mar 31
45%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market resolves YES if any of these things happen:
100+ American boots on the ground
100+ American deaths from the war
Iran agrees to an unconditional surrender
A third country bombs Iran
Iran's government falls
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?
Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of March?
22% chance
Will a new regime be installed in Iran before April 1st?
9% chance
Specific Events in the Iran War
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
20% chance
Will the Iranian regime fall by end of June?
33% chance
When will the Iranian protests end?
7/20/26
Will the Iranian protests end tragically?
58% chance