MANIFOLD
Iran leadership change by...?
10
Ṁ1kṀ1.2k
2027
10%
March 13
30%
March 31
35%
April 15
36%
April 30
39%
May 31
44%
May 15
48%
June 30
51%
August 31
55%
Oct 31
65%
Dec 31

Each answer will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, the answer will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market context
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