Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): US gas prices option will resolve using AAA or EIA data for the national average regular gasoline price exceeding $5/gallon by June 1, 2026.
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@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
Unique from existing oil price markets; timely given recent surges in gas prices due to Iran conflict (currently ~$3.40, up sharply); relevant economic impact for Iran-US followers; clearly resolvable via AAA or EIA data.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
Unique from the existing short-term $200 spike market, as this covers sustained prices at a lower threshold through year-end. Highly timely and relevant given recent surges to over $100/bbl amid Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Clear, resolvable via daily Brent settlement prices (e.g., ICE Futures Europe).
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
This is unique from existing options, highly relevant and timely amid current US-Iran conflict escalation and public discussions on manpower needs, and forms a concrete, resolvable proposition based on official activation of conscription.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Major Iran-linked terrorist attack on U.S. soil by December 31, 2026
This is unique from existing options, highly relevant to Iran-US tensions given recent warnings about Iranian proxies and sleeper cells, and can be resolved based on official attributions of major attacks (e.g., multiple fatalities, significant damage).
@patrik #9 US or Israel uses a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026 This option resolves YES if the US or Israel detonates at least one nuclear weapon in a military strike targeting Iranian territory, forces, or assets (including submarines, ships, or aircraft) during calendar year 2026 (January 1 to December 31). 'Detonates' means a nuclear explosion occurs, confirmed by physical effects like blast damage, radiation, or electromagnetic pulse attributable to a nuclear device. Evidence includes: official government statements from the US, Israel, or Iran; seismic readings from the CTBTO; satellite imagery from reliable sources (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs); IAEA or UN verification; or consensus reporting from major outlets like Reuters, AP, BBC confirming the event with specifics on location and yield. It does NOT qualify if: the weapon is launched but fails to detonate; used in testing unrelated to Iran; or targeting non-Iranian proxies without clear Iranian attribution. Resolves NO if no such event occurs by end of 2026.
Updated: US or Israel uses a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026 -> US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
/add-option US or Israel use a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026
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@patrik #8 Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 This option resolves YES if there is credible public evidence that Iran has successfully developed a functional nuclear weapon through its own research, enrichment, weaponization, and assembly efforts before January 1, 2027. 'Develops' specifically refers to indigenous capability, not acquiring a completed weapon, components, or fissile material transferred from another country (e.g., North Korea, Pakistan, or Russia).
Qualifying evidence includes: an Iranian nuclear test detonation; IAEA confirmation of a weaponized device produced by Iran; or consensus from major intelligence agencies (US, Israel, etc.) that Iran has crossed the weaponization threshold domestically. Statements by Iranian officials must be corroborated.
If Iran receives a foreign-supplied nuclear weapon, even if assembled or used, it resolves NO, as that is acquisition, not development. NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline.
Updated: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 -> Iran indigenously develops a functional nuclear weapon before end of 2026
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026
Accepted. This is unique from existing options, highly timely and relevant amid recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and widespread speculation on X about imminent nuclear developments. It's concrete and resolvable based on credible reporting from IAEA, US intelligence, or a confirmed test.
@spacedroplet #3 Iranian regime collapses by July 1, 2026 This option resolves YES if by July 1, 2026 (11:59 PM ET), the current Iranian regime—meaning the Islamic Republic's government under the Supreme Leader and associated institutions like the IRGC—has collapsed. Collapse is indicated by a loss of monopoly on violence and effective governance, evidenced by credible reports from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, BBC, NYT, AP) confirming events such as: significant defections or infighting within the IRGC/military leading to factional battles; opposition forces or protesters seizing control of Tehran or multiple major cities; the Supreme Leader and top leadership being removed, fleeing, arrested, or killed without a continuous successor government maintaining the regime's structure. An orderly succession (e.g., Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader) or mere economic crisis/protests without loss of control does NOT qualify. Otherwise, resolves NO.
Updated: Iranian regime collapses by July 1, 2026 -> Iranian regime (Islamic Republic government) collapses by July 1, 2026, via significant security force defections or opposition control of Tehran.