MANIFOLD
Will Iran shoot down a US military plane/helicopter by end of March?
388
Ṁ343Ṁ60k
Mar 31
33%
chance

Resolves based on trusted news sources.

Edit: Has to be a manned aircraft.

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bought Ṁ20 YES

Sorry if this has been asked already, but what about emergency landing as a result of ballistic strike on an aircraft? So not necessarily "shot out of the sky", but clearly grounded as a result of an attack?

@Arcmage7000 Not creator but I'd personally suggest to @creator that if it has no casualties and/ or no ejections then it shouldn't count. a softer but different version of this might be "doesn't count if it makes it to a runway/ landing pad"

@Stralor That looks like a good way to clearly distinguish one resolution state from anther. I think that's fair if @creator decides to adopt that.

@Qoiuoiuoiu If the pilot of the Kuwaiti F/A-18 that shot down the planes (U.S. F-15Es) happened to be found as an Iranian intelligence asset (sabatour, spy, sleeper agent, etc) would that count?

@DanzoAlerantos Ooh, good question! Yes, although they would need to be an agent of Iran (definitively connected to intelligence services) and not just a disgruntled Kuwaiti who sympathized with Iranians. Probably a high burden of proof here.

Do unmanned planes count?

@bens e.g. Iranian drone? Yes, this would count. Can you specify what you mean by unmanned plane?

@Qoiuoiuoiu I don't know if this is what Ben meant, but what if Iran shot down a US drone like a Predator? What about a kamikaze drone? (don't know if the US use them but still)

@Tomoffer No. Has to be driven by a human.

@Qoiuoiuoiu I feel like I'm being a prick here but, that isn't specified in the title or description...

@CourierSix A drone isn't a plane or helicopter. I think that's pretty clear cut but sorry if that was unclear.

@CourierSix I'll edit the description to make it more clear.

@CourierSix a drone is not a plane or heliphopter

@hidetzugu I am not saying that this counts 100% - but a potentially lethal drone is on AirNavRadar...

CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper Iran's ballistic missile attacks have PLUMMETED -90% and drones are down 83% since day 1

is this guy a bot or something? who talks like this

@brianwang please link sources

@Balasar trump talks like that

30 iranian ships sunk, several of the mini sub sunk. The surface fleet other than some speedboats and several subs. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/2029685495416975550?s=20

Basra rumor quickly denied with no supporting evidence emerging. No claims have come with official admission or geolocated wreckage.

bought Ṁ500 YES

Looks like it was indeed Iran that shot it down, just across the border into Iraq!
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2029660697697657210?s=20

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 74% order

@bens looks like US officials are continuing to deny these rumors, but I'm not sure these denials are correct, at this point.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/2029670222349717937?s=20

@bens A US official has denied this report: https://x.com/lookner/status/2029667922247873019

That footage may not be related: https://x.com/faytuks/status/2029658805617783172

I believe it would have had to occur at least ~8 hours ago if it is legitimate.

@bens Although apparently CENTCOM deleted an earlier post denying a crash, and now they are denying that a plane was shot down.

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