MANIFOLD
In what year will Tesla start mass production of its Optimus Bot
36
Ṁ1kṀ6.4k
2034
0.6%
2024
2%
2025
13%
2026
35%
>2030
49%
Other

Resolution Clarifications:

  • Product rename does not change the outcome, i.e. the bot's name does not need to be "Optimus" for a positive resolution of a specific year

  • "Other" = Cancellation of the Optimus Program, Insolvency, Significant Change of Design (Humanoid -> 4-legged does not count, humanoid -> 6DoF Arm counts as "Other")

Mass production indicators:

first deliveries

explicit communication of mass production start

announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Market context
Elon musk
Tesla
Humanoid robotics
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opened a Ṁ100 YES at 15% order

Since there's a ">2030" answer, this market can close at the end of 2030.

opened a Ṁ47 YES at 10% order

@Yves My interpretation of this matches yours, right?

2026 is a forgone conclusion

@Yves There is a 2k/666 limit order on 2024 NO 25%. It's just waiting for you...

Im Watching You How I Met Your Mother GIF by Laff

Mass production indicators:

  • first deliveries

  • explicit communication of mass production start

  • announcement of a number of produced "Optimus" Bots that is > x

Other Suggestions??

@Yves please write in the description the criteria for mass production

@Yves How big does x have to be?
1k ? Seems too low
10k ?
100k ?

Please put up some criteria for mass production.

@Lion Will this question resolve if the robot is renamed?

@Lion Product Rename does not change the outcome

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When will Tesla bots be commercially available?
Will Tesla Optimus Gen-2 be available for *Sale* General Availability (GA) by 2026?
-4% 1d11% chance
Will there be over 10,000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2027?
8% chance
In which year will Tesla release a robotaxi?
[Metaculus] Will Tesla be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2027?
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-5% 1d46% chance
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