If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who? | Manifold

If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who?

29

Ṁ250Ṁ2.1k

Dec 31

66%

🇰🇵 North Korea

23%

🇺🇸 United States

20%

🇮🇱 Israel

17%

🇮🇷 Iran

13%

🇨🇳 China

13%

🇷🇺 Russia

11%

🇮🇳 India

9%

🇵🇰 Pakistan

9%

🇫🇷 France

9%

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't. Otherwise, all options resolve N/A.

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bought Ṁ30 NO

If none detonate then it all resolves to no right?

@Ebcc1 All resolve N/A if there are no detonations, this is conditional on someone detonating

@Tetraspace well that’s a pain

@Tetraspace Why do that instead of just resolving everything to no?

@Cactus A nuclear detonation is unlikely, so making it conditional on a nuclear detonation means the probabilities are in the range [0,1] instead of being squeezed into [0,0.1] or whatever the probability of a nuclear detonation is

@Tetraspace oh true, ignore me

@Tetraspace I agree with this, however, I am upset that I ended up with a loss on that account. I guess I just have to hope there are no nuclear detonations which I was betting on anyways except in this case my upside is capped. And I have to wait until eoy. Mistake on my behalf but I guess at least it injects liquidity.

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