MANIFOLD
When will an AI system autonomously build and operate a production software platform serving 1,000+ active users?
3
Ṁ225Ṁ81
2027
August 20, 2030
33%
Before Dec 2026
37%
Before Apr 2027
41%
Before Oct 2027
44%
Before Jan 2028
46%
Before Dec 2028
46%
Before Dec 2029
46%
Before Dec 2030
47%
Before Dec 2031
48%
Before Dec 2032

Domain-Specific AGI in software engineering: a single AI system takes a novel product spec and autonomously architects, builds, deploys, and operates a production-grade platform (auth, scaling, monitoring, CI/CD, security, database — at least 3 of 6) for 1,000+ active users over 60 days, handling ops autonomously. No human code contributions or debugging. Independently verified.

Full methodology and definitions: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions

Future Shock ensemble prediction: March 2027 (±6 months). Also submitted to Metaculus.

  • Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Verification requirement: Claims of an AI system meeting the criteria will require confirmation from at least two independent sources vetting the claim before the market resolves YES.

Market context
AI
Technology
Technical AI Timelines
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Say the claim starts going around. There's a platform, it's publicized, there's some degree of trail to follow. The story is that an AI system autonomously developed and maintains this platform. How are you going to confirm it before resolving this market? Just take the claim at face value?

@marvingardens confirmation with require at least two sources vetting the claim

People are also trading

By Jan 2027, will AI independently run 3 successful companies that would've previously needed programmers?
17% chance
When will AI autonomously build and deploys a production ML system that drives business decisions
8/13/29
When will an AI develop, maintain and evolve by itself a full web application?
Will an AI agent mass-produce mass-consumed creative fiction (>1000 readers) on a public platform by end of 2026?
43% chance
AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?
82% chance
Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?
15% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate equivalent to ~=200 man years of effort towards a software 1.0 given a prompt?
24% chance
By 2028, will there be a public instance of an AI cybersecurity system autonomously replicating itself?
36% chance
When will an AI be able to write an OS from scratch, unsupervised, in <24hrs
When will an AI system complete 3 autonomous self-improvement cycles with 5%+ capability gains each?
4/10/30
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy