Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price, which is currently $3.33 as of market creation. This average has only ever been over $4/gallon in March-August of 2021 and June of 2008.
If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. If he is elected president, this market resolves YES if average gas prices stay under $4 a gallon between January 2025 and November 2026 and NO if they do not.
Update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.
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@SaviorofPlant i hate it here
The most recent month with gas prices in the US above $4.00 / gal was August 2022. WTI futures in July and August were in the $90 - $100 / barrel range, so I would expect March needs to average around $95/barrel in order to push gas prices that high (the price closed Friday at $91).
If prices went back below $90 for a significant part of the month (for example, if the current conflict ended and the Strait of Hormuz reopened), March average gas prices would likely be below $4.00/gal.
Price shock and recession seem likely to suppress oil prices indefinitely, selling out of my NO position. A little surprised I wasn't late to the party
The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.
Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.
Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).
Based on this market, I created this conditional market which separates out close elections so that the market becomes useful in determining causation rather than just correlation.