This market resolves to the number of whole weeks of active military conflict between the United States and Iran, measured from February 27 (February 28 local time). For simplicity, week boundaries are counted at midnight Pacific Time. Resolution dates are listed for each category.

On February 28, 2026 (IRST), Israel and the United States launched joint airstrikes on Iran, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israel, US bases, and US allies in the region. President Trump said the war could last “four weeks.” Israel’s military chief said it is moving to the “next phase” after making "2,500 airstrikes." Fighting escalated further when Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel after vowing to revenge the attack that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

Resolution is based on major news outlets such as CNN, Al Jazeera, and Reuters, along with official US Department of Defense statements. The conflict is considered ongoing while coordinated strikes, missile or drone attacks, or other significant combat operations continue. It ends when a ceasefire is reached, or US and Iran declare a halt to hostilities, which lasts for 4 continuous weeks.

• Update 2026-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding the 4-week cessation of hostilities clause:

  • The resolution week count is measured from the start of the ceasefire/cessation period (not the end)

  • If a cessation begins but fails before 4 weeks pass, the time from that failed cessation will be added back to the total conflict duration