Which comes first: 1GW of solar in orbit, or on the Moon?
7
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k2050
Orbit82%
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Nameplate capacity, total across all users.
Best estimates -- if we can find a single source using consistent methods in advance, I may update to use that.
Moon is on the surface; orbit includes Lunar orbit.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Who lands on the Moon next?
Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?
1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?
50% chance
Who will walk on the Moon first?
Which will happen first: a child is born on the Moon, or a child flies to the Moon?
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
When will there be GPS on the Moon?
Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
13% chance
Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
30% chance
Sort by:
@Dulaman There were a could folks on Twitter arguing that the moon was a better location. I think you're right, though, orbit is better. 1GW seemed like a large enough number to make the question interesting.
If you can do ISRU solar panels it's at least an interesting idea, but that might be further away than 1GW scale projects. Maybe we need a 1TW companion market.
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the first woman to set foot on the Moon?
Who lands on the Moon next?
Which happens first: Human spends six months on the Moon or Human lands on Mars?
1GW of solar power in Earth orbit by EOY 2031?
50% chance
Who will walk on the Moon first?
Which will happen first: a child is born on the Moon, or a child flies to the Moon?
Which of these will successfully land on the Moon in 2026?
When will there be GPS on the Moon?
Will there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
13% chance
Will there be more than 1GW of in-space solar power generation by 2030?
30% chance