How many F1 races will be rescheduled, moved, or cancelled this season? | Manifold

How many F1 races will be rescheduled, moved, or cancelled this season?

39

Ṁ150Ṁ1.3k

Dec 13

7%

0

15%

1

40%

2

35%

3-4

3%

5-8

0.7%

9+

Sakhir and Jeddah are close to hostilities in Iran, and near-term. Baku, Lusail, and Abu Dhabi are also in the region. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Formula_One_World_Championship#Calendar

Anything that results in a race not being held on the originally scheduled calendar day, at the originally scheduled track, counts for this market; it doesn't have to be related to wars.

Market context

Israel-Iran Conflict

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2026 season – 8th of March to 6th of December – 24 races (if none are canceled).

bought Ṁ5 YES

I just checked, seemingly none disrupted yet during this season, but 2 are at risk.

This market is a good proxy for how much the global conflicts can interfere with 'normal stuff'. I like it.

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