Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
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MARCH 2026
🌡️ Forecast blended (unadj.):
02/03 - 1.067
03/03 - 1.072
04/03 - 1.112
08/03 - 1.097
09/03 - 1.097
10/03 - 1.093
✨ Model output (unadj.):
08/03 - 1.167
09/03 - 1.175
10/03 - 1.177
➕ Adjustment:
Still in testing but provisionally forecast a=+0.013, model a=+0.024
Forecast blend is quite unreliable, my algo model will be closer to final figure.
//new account decided to get my mana up for the swag
@zenarxy You'll get 25 mana a day if you just find another market to bet in if you don't want to update daily like I do.
x
@chaitea I still don't have a good ERA5->GISTEMP monthly model for March.
You are quite a bit lower than I am though but this may be all from this model adjustment (I'm blending a couple different statistical and the dynamical+statistical, with only one of the statistical slightly favoring the 1.20-1.25 bin now, but they are all sensitive to the last day's temperature).
Last day of medium range in the super ensemble has increased disagreement today (last day is only weighted GEPS/GEFS so its more sensitive to a warm biases which tends to push up the statistical extrapolation, however ARIMA complicates interpretation: the recent ERA5 forecast error for the unadjusted has been marginally worse (model warmer than observed) so its possible the ARIMA adjustment so far out is a contributor but its also possible GEFS is over doing the China and relatively less cold in east Antarctica -- hard to analyze it visually.
