Will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for more than 7 consecutive days in March 2026?
21
Ṁ100Ṁ2kApr 3
93%
chance
4
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed closed to commercial shipping for more than 7 consecutive days at any point in March 2026.
Resolution source: Major wire services (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) reporting confirmed closure.
Context: Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March 2026 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Approximately 20% of global oil supply transits the strait.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000
People are also trading
Related questions
If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, will crude oil hit $___ before April 2026?
Will Iran officially announce a blockade/closure of the Strait of Hormuz for more than 48 consecutive hours by July 2026
74% chance
Will there be a food shortage related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?
52% chance
Will Iran successfully attack the mainland US before March 2027
15% chance
Will the regime of Iran fall by the end of March 2026?
10% chance
How many days in a row will the Iranian war strikes last?
If the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
30% chance
Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?
48% chance
Will the Iran-Saudi deal last until 2026?
60% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
31% chance