MANIFOLD
Will the deaths from internal conflicts in the USA surpass 5000 before 2027
8
Ṁ100Ṁ162
Dec 31
16%
chance

people killed by government employees and vise versa are the only ones that qualify

only deaths from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026 apply

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Terrorism
Death
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I'm going to need help resolving this due to the opaqueness of these kinds of death counts. I'll keep this comment updated with my own estimates.

About 1000 people are killed by police in the US every year according to these sources:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362796/number-people-killed-police-us/

https://campaignzero.org/wp-content/uploads/campaign-zero-mpv-2024-fact-sheet.pdf

https://mappingpoliceviolence.us/

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I'm going to need help resolving this due to the opaqueness of these kinds of death counts. I'll keep this comment updated with my own estimates.

About 1000 people are killed by police in the US every year according to these sources:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1362796/number-people-killed-police-us/

https://campaignzero.org/wp-content/uploads/campaign-zero-mpv-2024-fact-sheet.pdf

https://mappingpoliceviolence.us/

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