If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027? | Manifold

If a human challenge trial for a hepatitis C vaccine is completed by the end of 2024, will a hep C vaccine be approved by the end of 2027?

11

Ṁ1kṀ112

2027

53%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

"Completed" doesn't require the publication of a peer-reviewed article, just notice from a relevant research team. Will resolve NA if a hep C human challenge trial is NOT completed by the end of 2024; see paired question.

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